The ProBet Betting Strategy

Here at ProBet we only back horses that are very likely to win. This means we focus on horses that are first or second in the betting markets. That may sound a bit of an obvious thing to say but there is actually a lot more to it than that. Let me explain.

FACT 1:

Horses that are either first or second favourite in the betting market win more often than all the other horses put together.

 
I think that is a very powerful statement of fact and as a punter it is almost impossible to ignore. Unless you have a crystal ball
or are privvy to some selective inside information then finding consistent winners outside of the top two favourites is hard to do.

The odds are stacked against you. Consider these stats:
 
Horses that are either first or second favourite will win 51%  of all races run and return a loss on turnover of -14%.  

Horses that are NOT the first or second favourite will win  49% of all races run and return a  loss on turnover of  -22%.

You will also see that the loss on turnover for the non favourites is much worse. Non favourites will see you lose 22 cents in every dollar wagered whereas the top two faves is only a loss of 14 cents per dollar.  That’s a difference of over 57%. Another very powerful figure.

 
FACT 2: 

By backing the horses outside of the first two in the betting you will go broke MUCH quicker -  in fact 57% quicker!

 
That’s a bit scary. Yet, people are doing it and will continue to do so.

Now it is also a fact that even though the faves win most races they will still send you broke eventually. On average the 
outright favourite will win 32% of all races run with average odds of $2.70. Long term that means you are going to lose 
about 13 cents of every dollar you spend with the horse at the top of the betting. So eventually you are going to lose all
your money. But as I said, not as fast as if you are backing horses that are outside of the top line of betting. .

 So, in order to become profitable we need to do two very important things:

 We need a winning strike rate that is higher than 32% whilst not negatively impacting on the value (available odds versus true  odds)  of our selections.  

 The ProBet Service delivers exactly that. 

We identify the first or second favourites that are most likely to win whilst also aiming to ensure that the odds available are still  representing a value betting proposition.

 This may still mean backing a horse at $2.00 but if it is a true $1.80 chance then it is a value bet.

 Our selections will nearly always be in a price range of $1.80 - $5.00 though we do sometimes back horses at up to $7.00 or  $8.00 if they are considered excellent value.   

That is our approach and since we began in 2005 it has worked well for us providing a profit every year. Over the last 7 years our annual strike rates have varied from 39% to 51% so it is not unreasonable to expect something in between.  Our average odds have been fairly consistent at $2.80 though recently they have been closer to $2.90.

Due to the nature of our bets we are very selective. In order to take full advantage of our methods then a disciplined and 
sensible approach is required and an expectation that we may go several days without a bet. However, when we do bet it is with full confidence.

 I look forward to sharing this service with you and providing a selection method that can make a real difference to your punting.

The link below is a suggestion of how to operate a betting bank and what stakes to use.

 David Evans

ProBet
For Profitable Advice and Guidance
on Australian Horse Racing

Email: info@probet.info